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纠结的房贷市场向何处去

2024-07-07 17:58:14 浏览:76

炒股就看，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！

转自：北京商报

2月15日，本报调查#北京有银行可买房还贷至85岁# 登上热搜。根据中介提供的信息，北京地区首套房贷款最长期限为25年，个别银行可贷至80周岁。还有银行规定，二套房借款人可贷至85周岁。

同一天，成都部分银行“年龄加贷款期限可延至90岁”的消息引发关注。成都为延至90岁设置了前提条件，即在子女与老人作为共同借款人情况下，与此相关“合力贷”“接力贷”走红市场。

从85岁到90岁，各地房贷年龄一再试探延长，成为信贷放宽的鲜明信号。银行放贷大力揽客的同时，居民则主动降杠杆提前还贷。潜在的入场者或许还在犹豫，试图离席的人反倒踊跃，扯出当下房地产市场一条清晰的“裂痕”。

2023年金融市场工作会议指出，动态监测分析房地产市场边际变化，因城施策实施好差别化住房信贷政策，落实好金融支持房地产市场平稳健康发展的16条政策措施。

在因城施策总框架下，房地产市场扭转颓势提振信心势在必行。政策松绑叠加信贷放宽，各地大概率会继续“两手抓”，85岁也好，90岁也罢，其实都不足为奇。

对于普通居民来说，从加杠杆买房到提前降杠杆还贷，反映的是市场对房地产投资的预期发生了变化。

投资不赚钱，不如减少负债，在不确定性中努力抓住确定性。疫情冲击过后，大众心理上的PTSD，会直接影响个人理财家庭负债管理。

只要存量按揭利率不变，高企利差存在，若没有更好的投资选择，把提前还贷视为理财优选就顺理成章。

在收入及未来预期存在不确定性的时候，如果手中还有积蓄，提前偿还贷款可以减轻长期性的现金压力，减少债务焦虑，能让负债的人在风险面前松口气。

提前还贷潮背后显示出人们对经济走势、投资理财、生活品质等预期的方向。普通人对于债务风险有了新的认知，倾向于更加理性地利用金融借贷杠杆撬动投资及消费需求。

而从银行的层面考虑，调低利率虽然有助于缓解当前贷款早偿的压力，但这项工作十分复杂，调低容易，调低多少合适又是难题。

不同时期的房贷利率形成，受制于当时房地产调控政策及银行信贷资源空间，而统一调整依然会对不同个体造成“不公”。

抛开个体，跟风似的提前还贷，又会冲击银行整体的信贷业务，也会不可避免地触发连锁反应。比如，银行会不会“拆东墙补西墙”，这边房贷利率降了，那边存款利率也跟着降……

如此，提前还贷困难重重，可放贷的门槛一降再降。在各种力量的相互拉扯下，纠结的房贷市场向何处去，正急求一个答案。

北京商报评论员 陶凤

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